Health conditions are the driving force behind supplement sales. Do you understand the 'why' behind what's selling?

Part of the slower growth for supplements is undoubtedly driven by inflation and economic anxiety, but another driver is what we are calling the full-medicine-cabinet effect. During the pandemic, people bought too much elderberry and too much zinc, for instance. Elderberry was growing at 69.2% before the pandemic. It was in freefall last year, and we’re expecting a scant 0.5% growth in 2023. Zinc is on track for four straight years of decline, something NBJ has never seen.

To some extent, in certain conditions, the supplement industry is a victim of its own success. People clearly overbought, and now, perhaps, they are underbuying, working their way through all those bottles. We can’t blame everything on inflation. Sports nutrition, for instance, had a fantastic year in 2022, accelerating from another fantastic year in 2021. Maybe because people didn’t stock up on sports nutrition during the pandemic.

At least right now, we can’t accept sales as a barometer of health. Sales aren’t a broken sign. They’re the wrong sign to look at.